UnTRUSTWORTHY

I don't believe Burmese people will be able to deny neither the referendum nor its result. And they won't be able to defeat the junta this way as the Venezuelans defeated their president. There is no way to defeat the junta as the voting system will be controlled for the advantage of the junta.

The National Convention of the junta should be an example - nobody, especially the NLD, can say anything even though knowing it is a sham. Likewise, the referendum will be done in similar conditions - the truth is people do not accept the junta but they will have to accept the result alleging them that they had voted for the constitution which they would never do in reality.

In 1990 election, the people could surprise the military because it was unprecedented election and the junta hadn't learnt the mind of the people. Now everything is opposite. We won't get a fair referendum. Or people wouldn't be able to have a good look of what they're going to vote for. Most people will have to rely on the advice of the thugs - I believe.

Also the NLD won't get a place to try the junta in 2010 election. Two years must be enough to make NLD not to be ready for next election. Even if the junta allowed it to participate, the police and the thugs can make it not to be ready. We can imagine this. Many of the NLD candidates could be arrested for various reasons right before the election as the NLD's MPs elected in the 1990s were arrested. Even now, the junta has been ignoring the UNSC's call - to release all political prisoners.

We don't have to wait and see what we know. This is the job of the international community, the UN and the media - not ours. Even though the world can calculate the tricks of the junta, they have to wait and see. And we can predict too but what for are we going to wait and see - our defeat?

And believe me - China will not join our side no matter what. ASEAN would play some diplomatic game I guess but this cannot be to favour our side. In regional political game, we must completely understand we're on our own and unless we're cleaver and get above the junta somehow, no regional country can do anything. India seems to play a better game for democracy but it only started when the saffron revolution happened. For democratic change, we have to completely understand that China government won't give a hand - unless it has no other option.

China won't try for our unity as it never did and it doesn't care if we fell apart. It's wrong to assume China worries if Burmese politics would affect its internal politics too. There was saffron revolution in Burma; there was nothing, but economic activities, in China. But now China has a country in the region under its wing. It wants more countries under its wings to make sure India, Japan and the west at bay. Its political power is also up to how it can control the international community or many countries. The west cannot resist the Beijing offers and thus, also its influences. But both India and Japan, I guess, must know what certainly will favour them. Whatever China claims, it won't give up its advantages. And all Burmese activists should know that democracy in Burma is not important to China - nor to ASEAN (even if a few countries, Indonesia or the Philippines, like to see a change).

If you'd like to argue for China, then you have to ask, why doesn't China do something significant in UNSC but still blocking Burma issue? Unless China threatens it wouldn't veto again against the attempt of the international community, the junta would certainly hear this and would do for a sincere change with open compromise. Already, the junta has been preparing for another show with magician tricks.

We all expected that we'd be able to argue against the NC once it's finished. But nothing happened and the majority activists have been silent. The problem is we don't have anything ready, such as a draft constitution that is seen and understood by the UN and international leaders, to fight against the NC. We were unprepared when the saffron revolution occurred. I don't believe our political leaders will be ready for anything by 2010. It is generally physical at the grassroots level; it is ideological, clear vision, trustworthiness, decisiveness, strong leadership, and international relation on the top however.